Let’s talk turkey (or fish and chips) about post-Brexit trade. The UK’s import–export world has shifted. Some changes are obvious. Others sneak in like a ghost in the data. Pull up a chair—here’s what the new customs figures whisper to us, and how businesses should read them.
1. The Starting Line: EU Dependence and the Shock of Red Tape
Before 2021, many UK–EU trade flows moved with near-invisibility: no customs checks, no origin declarations, one big “internal market” illusion. After Brexit, not so much.
You’ll remember that exports to the EU dropped sharply in early 2021 before recovering somewhat. (Yes, part of that was COVID, supply-chain chaos, etc., but the timing screams “shock.”)
Fast-forward: as of 2024 and the latest 12-month figures, goods exports to the EU are still some 18 % below their 2019 level. Services have fared better, even growing relative to pre-Brexit.
Meanwhile, the EU still accounts for roughly 41 % of UK exports — the share has drifted slightly downward but remains meaningful.
The point: the UK’s dependence on EU markets is real, but the friction has pushed both sides (businesses and government) into adaptation mode.
2. The Data Pulse—What the Customs Figures Reveal
Let’s draw blood. What do the most recent numbers tell us?
A) Goods trade is rising again (but unevenly)
- In July 2025, UK imports rose by £2.7 billion (5.4 %), exports by £1.9 billion (6.6 %). Notably, imports from both EU and non-EU markets climbed.
- Exports to non-EU countries grew faster than to the EU.
- But the trade in goods deficit still widened to around £61.9 billion over a recent three-month span.
- (Because yes, imports rose more aggressively than exports. Ask any accountant.)
B) Share shifts: non-EU is nibbling at EU’s slice
- In 2024, UK goods exports to the EU were about £174 billion; to non-EU countries about £191 billion. So non-EU now slightly edges out.
- In the 12 months up to July 2025, EU share was ~47.8 %, non-EU ~52.2 %.
- On the import side, around 53 % of goods still came from the EU in 2024, though that share is gradually slipping.
C) Sectoral patterns: who moves fastest
- Machinery, transport equipment—those are workhorses. They feature heavily in both EU and non-EU trade swings.
- Food & drink exports to the EU, for instance, have dropped significantly (by 34 % in volume since Brexit). That’s not trivial—it means new customs, certification, paperwork, friction in perishables.
- In contrast, services exports (financial, legal, digital) continue to grow, especially beyond Europe.
In short: trade is recovering, realigning. The EU remains vital, but non-EU routes are gaining ground. And sectors that can handle paperwork and complexity seem better placed.
3. Commonwealth & New Routes: The Pivot Strategy
If the EU is no longer a “safe harbour” in terms of friction, where is the UK exploring next? Commonwealth, Asia, the “Global Britain” ambitions.
- Free trade deals and preferential access are being pursued with nations like Australia, New Zealand, India, etc.
- In agriculture and food, imports from Australia surged (post-trade deal) in 2025—puts pressure on domestic producers.
- Businesses are experimenting: sourcing inputs, diversifying buyers—less “all eggs in EU basket,” more “lots of smaller routes.”
- Some niche exporters (artisanal, specialty, single-origin) are seeing traction in non-EU markets that appreciate quality over volume.
The overarching message: trade is becoming more diversified. The UK is trying to “turn outward” rather than lean solely inward to Europe.
4. What Businesses Should Watch (Not Just the Headlines)
What can you, as a business owner, trade manager, or policymaker, take from these shifts? Here are practical things to watch and act on:
● Know your origin rules
Red tape isn’t just annoying—it costs you. Rules of origin determine whether your goods qualify for tariff-free access. One misstep and your goods might be “imported” with full duties.
● Reassess your supply chain
If your inputs come from EU countries, consider diversifying source countries. Evaluate logistics cost vs. lead time vs. regulatory burden.
● Segment your markets
Invest in markets where the friction is lower or growing. If non-EU markets are showing faster export growth, capture that momentum.
● Invest in customs & compliance capabilities
Hire or train staff who understand declarations, digital customs tools, automation. The smoother your internal machinery, the less “drag.”
● Start small in new markets
Don’t bet the farm on a single new route. Pilot small exports, understand consumer preferences, test tariffs and distribution, then scale.
● Monitor sector trends closely
If you’re in food & drink, textile, or perishables, watch how certification, sanitary rules, labelling evolve. They change fast post-Brexit.
● Leverage government support and trade desks
The government has trade advisors, export support, target country desks. Use them—not just as freebies, but to navigate red tape and find contacts.
5. A Short Story
One midsize UK furniture maker (let’s call them “Oak & Co.”) had 60 % of sales to EU markets pre-2021. After Brexit, their customs errors, delays, and missing paperwork caused them to lose orders and margins.
So Oak & Co. made a bet: they targeted two non-EU markets—Canada and Singapore. They hired one import specialist, figured out origin rules, and started delivering small batches. Within a year, non-EU sales accounted for 25 % of their export revenue.
They didn’t abandon the EU; they retooled procedures there too. But the growth came from new routes. That diversification gave them more resilience.
Your business may not be Oak & Co., but the logic holds: in trade and life, don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
6. The Big Picture & What’s Next
- The UK’s post-Brexit trade is a story of adaptation, not collapse. The EU still matters; non-EU growth matters more now.
- Customs data show that imports and exports are bouncing back, with non-EU routes gaining momentum.
- The pivot to Commonwealth or global markets isn’t magic—it’s work. It demands compliance, intelligence, flexibility.
- The new trade world rewards nimble companies: those who can read data, adjust supply chains, and tolerate (or reduce) friction.
To wrap: trade after Brexit isn’t about winning or losing a war. It’s about repositioning at sea, refining your sails, finding new winds. Use the customs and trade data as your compass, not as random noise. Get granular, stay agile—and treat friction not as a showstopper but a variable you manage.
Turn curiosity into results—country by country
Explore verified import and export data by country on import-export-data.com and convert HS codes into a step-by-step plan. Send us your HS list; we’ll map it to live customs records and pull what counts: real buyers and suppliers, shipment lanes and volumes, Incoterms, and actual paid prices over time. With transparent shipment trails and price bands ($/kg, local currency) at hand, you’ll benchmark faster, spot seasonality and risk earlier, and enter negotiations grounded in evidence—not intuition.